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UD Logroñés vs Osasuna II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
FT
1 – 1
Osasuna II
Osasuna II
8/18/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

UD Logroñés30%
×Draw25%
Osasuna II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.21
Osasuna II
1.54

Osasuna II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
1.67
Osasuna II
1.75

allows per match

UD Logroñés
1.33
Osasuna II
0.75

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Osasuna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
55%
UD Logroñés or Osasuna II
75%
Draw or Osasuna II
70%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
12%
Osasuna II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
70%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
34%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
12%
Osasuna II 1+ goals
79%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
45%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
40%
Osasuna II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.67 + Osasuna II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Osasuna II attack 1.75 + UD Logroñés defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
30%
level
25%
Osasuna II scores more
45%

Osasuna II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Logroñés vs Osasuna II

UD Logroñés and Osasuna II drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 18, 2022.