UD Logroñés 1–0 Numancia: Result & Stats

UD Logroñés

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Numancia

5/20/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

UD Logroñés44%

×Draw33%

Numancia23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD LogroñésExpected goals in this matchNumancia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.66

UD Logroñés

1.03

Numancia

0.66

UD Logroñés creates 56% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 19 away

1.18

creates per match

0.63

0.68

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

UD Logroñés

1.18

Numancia

0.63

allows per match

UD Logroñés

0.68

Numancia

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Numancia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Numancia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw

77%

UD Logroñés or Numancia

67%

Draw or Numancia

56%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+

17%

Numancia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals

64%

UD Logroñés 2+ goals

28%

UD Logroñés 3+ goals

9%

Numancia 1+ goals

48%

Numancia 2+ goals

14%

Numancia 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)

65%

Numancia (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Numancia away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.18 + Numancia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Numancia attack 0.63 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UD Logroñés scores more

44%

level

33%

Numancia scores more

23%

UD Logroñés at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff