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UD Logroñés vs Haro Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
9/1/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

UD Logroñés47%
×Draw29%
Haro Deportivo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.25
Haro Deportivo
0.79

UD Logroñés creates 58% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
1.18
Haro Deportivo
0.89

allows per match

UD Logroñés
0.68
Haro Deportivo
1.32

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
77%
UD Logroñés or Haro Deportivo
71%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
53%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
21%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
71%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
36%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
13%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
55%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
19%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
67%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.18 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Haro Deportivo attack 0.89 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
47%
level
29%
Haro Deportivo scores more
23%

UD Logroñés at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Logroñés 0 – 1 Haro Deportivo

Haro Deportivo beat UD Logroñés 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.