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UD Logroñés vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gimnastic
Gimnastic
5/7/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

UD Logroñés47%
×Draw31%
Gimnastic22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.18
Gimnastic
0.70

UD Logroñés creates 69% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 57 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
1.18
Gimnastic
0.72

allows per match

UD Logroñés
0.68
Gimnastic
1.18

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Gimnastic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
78%
UD Logroñés or Gimnastic
69%
Draw or Gimnastic
53%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
21%
Gimnastic wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
69%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
33%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
12%
Gimnastic 1+ goals
50%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
16%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
68%
Gimnastic (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.18 + Gimnastic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Gimnastic attack 0.72 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
47%
level
31%
Gimnastic scores more
22%

UD Logroñés at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Logroñés vs Gimnastic

Gimnastic beat UD Logroñés 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.