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UD Logroñés vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
9/15/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UD Logroñés42%
×Draw28%
Cultural Leonesa30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.25
Cultural Leonesa
1.01

UD Logroñés creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
1.18
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

allows per match

UD Logroñés
0.68
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
70%
UD Logroñés or Cultural Leonesa
72%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
58%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
19%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
71%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
36%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
13%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
64%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
27%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
58%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.18 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.33 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
42%
level
28%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
30%

UD Logroñés at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: UD Logroñés 3–2 Cultural Leonesa

UD Logroñés beat Cultural Leonesa 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.