UD Logroñés 1–1 Castellón: Result & Stats

UD Logroñés

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Castellón

Roni 90+3'

Jamelli 73'

9/26/2020

Segunda División · Round 3Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

UD Logroñés35%

×Draw29%

Castellón36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD LogroñésExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.14

UD Logroñés

1.12

Castellón

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 64 away

0.71

creates per match

1.14

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

UD Logroñés

0.71

Castellón

1.14

allows per match

UD Logroñés

1.14

Castellón

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw

64%

UD Logroñés or Castellón

71%

Draw or Castellón

65%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+

14%

Castellón wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals

67%

UD Logroñés 2+ goals

31%

UD Logroñés 3+ goals

10%

Castellón 1+ goals

68%

Castellón 2+ goals

32%

Castellón 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)

49%

Castellón (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 0.71 + Castellón defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.12

Castellón attack 1.14 + UD Logroñés defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

UD Logroñés scores more

35%

level

29%

Castellón scores more

36%

Castellón at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Iñaki

UD Logroñés · D

7.9

Match Events

19'

Álvaro Fidalgo

25'

Rafa Gálvez

55'

Jordi Sánchez← Juanto

55'

Jamelli← Álvaro Fidalgo

64'

L. Acevedo← Ander Vitoria

73'

Jamelli↳ Satrústegui

78'

Roni← Zelu

78'

Unai Medina← Jon Errasti

84'

Luís Gustavo← Jorge Fernández

85'

Rafa Gálvez

85'

Rafa Gálvez

90'

Carlos Delgado← Josep Señé

90+3'

Roni↳ O. Siddiki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UDCastellón

Overview

49%Possession51%

17Total Shots5

12Corners2

13Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots5

4On Target1

5Off Target2

8Blocked2

9Inside Box1

8Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

459Total Passes485

378Accurate Passes402

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Segunda División: UD Logroñés 1–1 Castellón

UD Logroñés and Castellón drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 26, 2020.

Goals: Jamelli (73'), Roni (90+3').

Castellón controlled possession (51%) and registered 5 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.

UD Logroñés vs Castellón — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: UD Logroñés 1–1 Castellón