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UD Logroñés vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
CANC
00:00
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
3/22/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

UD Logroñés45%
×Draw28%
Athletic Club II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.30
Athletic Club II
0.94

UD Logroñés creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 45 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
1.18
Athletic Club II
1.20

allows per match

UD Logroñés
0.68
Athletic Club II
1.42

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
73%
UD Logroñés or Athletic Club II
72%
Draw or Athletic Club II
55%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
21%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
73%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
37%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
14%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
61%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
24%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
62%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.18 + Athletic Club II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Athletic Club II attack 1.20 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
45%
level
28%
Athletic Club II scores more
27%

UD Logroñés at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: UD Logroñés host Athletic Club II

March 22, 2020: UD Logroñés take on Athletic Club II in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

UD Logroñés host Athletic Club II at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.