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UD Logroñés II vs Villegas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

UD Logroñés II
UD Logroñés II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Villegas
Villegas
Cayetano Ruiz 74'
J. Hugo 32'
P. Martinez 68'
10/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

UD Logroñés II85%
×Draw10%
Villegas5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés II
3.06
Villegas
0.59

UD Logroñés II creates 419% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 46 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés II
3.09
Villegas
0.57

allows per match

UD Logroñés II
0.61
Villegas
3.04

finishing

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par
Villegas+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés II ↓

Villegas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

UD Logroñés II or draw
95%
UD Logroñés II or Villegas
90%
Draw or Villegas
15%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+
67%
Villegas wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals
95%
UD Logroñés II 2+ goals
80%
UD Logroñés II 3+ goals
57%
Villegas 1+ goals
45%
Villegas 2+ goals
12%
Villegas 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)
95%
Villegas (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés II at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.61 · 79 matches

Villegas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.04 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés II attack 3.09 + Villegas defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 3.06

Villegas attack 0.57 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

UD Logroñés II scores more
85%
level
10%
Villegas scores more
5%

UD Logroñés II at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
J. Hugo
68'
P. Martinez
74'
Cayetano Ruiz
89'
D. Saenz
89'
D. Saenz
UD
Villegas
Eladio Urzay
Manager: Eladio Urzay
Alberto Tricio
Manager: Alberto Tricio

Match Recap: UD Logroñés II vs Villegas

UD Logroñés II beat Villegas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 26, 2025.

Goals: J. Hugo (32'), P. Martinez (68'), Cayetano Ruiz (74').