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UD Logroñés II vs San Marcial — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

UD Logroñés II
UD Logroñés II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
San Marcial
San Marcial
2/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

UD Logroñés II71%
×Draw17%
San Marcial12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés II
2.42
San Marcial
0.86

UD Logroñés II creates 181% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 17 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés II
3.09
San Marcial
1.12

allows per match

UD Logroñés II
0.61
San Marcial
1.76

finishing

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par
San Marcial+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés II ↓

San Marcial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

UD Logroñés II or draw
88%
UD Logroñés II or San Marcial
83%
Draw or San Marcial
29%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+
49%
San Marcial wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals
91%
UD Logroñés II 2+ goals
69%
UD Logroñés II 3+ goals
43%
San Marcial 1+ goals
58%
San Marcial 2+ goals
21%
San Marcial 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)
86%
San Marcial (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés II at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.61 · 79 matches

San Marcial away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés II attack 3.09 + San Marcial defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.42

San Marcial attack 1.12 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

UD Logroñés II scores more
71%
level
17%
San Marcial scores more
12%

UD Logroñés II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Logroñés II 5 – 0 San Marcial

UD Logroñés II beat San Marcial 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 1, 2026.