UD Logroñés II 0–0 River Ebro: Result & Stats

UD Logroñés II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

River Ebro

2/25/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 22Ciudad Deportiva UD Logroñés Campo 2 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

UD Logroñés II73%

×Draw16%

River Ebro11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD Logroñés IIExpected goals in this matchRiver Ebro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.85

UD Logroñés II

2.50

River Ebro

0.85

UD Logroñés II creates 194% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 93 away

3.09

creates per match

1.09

0.61

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

UD Logroñés II

3.09

River Ebro

1.09

allows per match

UD Logroñés II

0.61

River Ebro

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés II ↓

River Ebro →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

UD Logroñés II or draw

89%

UD Logroñés II or River Ebro

84%

Draw or River Ebro

27%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+

51%

River Ebro wins by 2+

Team goals

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals

92%

UD Logroñés II 2+ goals

71%

UD Logroñés II 3+ goals

45%

River Ebro 1+ goals

57%

River Ebro 2+ goals

21%

River Ebro 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)

87%

River Ebro (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés II at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.61 · 79 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés II attack 3.09 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.50

River Ebro attack 1.09 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

UD Logroñés II scores more

73%

level

16%

River Ebro scores more

11%

UD Logroñés II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Diego Benito← Iñigo San Martin

58'

Mustapha Zarouali← Daniel Sáenz

58'

Pol Arnau← Esteban Mogollón

68'

Alex Cantarero← Felipe Burset

68'

Adrián Montoya← Álvaro Ruiz

70'

Andreu Talarn← Daniel García

84'

Sergio Cordovín← Iker Pérez

84'

Sergio Ocón← David Cabezas

84'

Pablo Navarro← Álex Pascual

84'

Icaro Neves← Omar Laanaya

River

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Manager: Eladio Urzay

58'▲Mustapha Zarouali←▼Daniel Sáenz

58'▲Pol Arnau←▼Esteban Mogollón

70'▲Andreu Talarn←▼Daniel García

84'▲Sergio Cordovín←▼Iker Pérez

84'▲Sergio Ocón←▼David Cabezas

UD Logroñés II substitutes

ZaroualiArnauTalarnCordovínOcón

Manager: Eric Saez-Benito

35'▲Diego Benito←▼Iñigo San Martin

68'▲Alex Cantarero←▼Felipe Burset

68'▲Adrián Montoya←▼Álvaro Ruiz

84'▲Pablo Navarro←▼Álex Pascual

84'▲Icaro Neves←▼Omar Laanaya

River Ebro substitutes

BenitoCantareroMontoyaNavarroNeves