UD Logroñés II 4–0 Arnedo: Result & Stats

UD Logroñés II

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Arnedo

Ricardo de Moraes 65', 30'

David Cabezas 34'

Pol Arnau 6'

4/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 29Ciudad Deportiva UD Logroñés Campo 2 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

UD Logroñés II61%

×Draw20%

Arnedo19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD Logroñés IIExpected goals in this matchArnedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.12

UD Logroñés II

2.15

Arnedo

1.12

UD Logroñés II creates 92% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 95 away

3.09

creates per match

1.63

0.61

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

UD Logroñés II

3.09

Arnedo

1.63

allows per match

UD Logroñés II

0.61

Arnedo

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

Arnedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés II ↓

Arnedo →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

UD Logroñés II or draw

81%

UD Logroñés II or Arnedo

80%

Draw or Arnedo

39%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+

38%

Arnedo wins by 2+

Team goals

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals

88%

UD Logroñés II 2+ goals

63%

UD Logroñés II 3+ goals

36%

Arnedo 1+ goals

67%

Arnedo 2+ goals

31%

Arnedo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)

76%

Arnedo (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés II at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.61 · 79 matches

Arnedo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.20 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés II attack 3.09 + Arnedo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.15

Arnedo attack 1.63 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

UD Logroñés II scores more

61%

level

20%

Arnedo scores more

19%

UD Logroñés II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Pol Arnau

30'

Ricardo de Moraes

34'

David Cabezas

46'

Sergio Argaiz← Alfonso Corbacho

46'

Daian Ochoa← Diego Ruiz

48'

Iván Pascual← Guillermo Amelivia

63'

Mustapha Zarouali← Mario Salazar

63'

Iker Pérez← Pol Arnau

63'

I. Mwanza← David Sevilla

65'

Ricardo de Moraes

70'

Miguel Angel← Palacios

73'

Esteban Mogollón← Iván Garrido

73'

M. Ouroui← David Cabezas

78'

Daniel Sáenz← Sergio Ocón

Arnedo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

Cabezas

Manager: Eladio Urzay

63'▲Mustapha Zarouali←▼Mario Salazar

63'▲Iker Pérez←▼Pol Arnau

73'▲Esteban Mogollón←▼Iván Garrido

73'▲M. Ouroui←▼David Cabezas

78'▲Daniel Sáenz←▼Sergio Ocón

UD Logroñés II substitutes

ZaroualiPérezMogollónOurouiSáenz

Manager: Arpón

46'▲Sergio Argaiz←▼Alfonso Corbacho

46'▲Daian Ochoa←▼Diego Ruiz

48'▲Iván Pascual←▼Guillermo Amelivia

63'▲I. Mwanza←▼David Sevilla

70'▲Miguel Angel←▼Palacios

Arnedo substitutes

ArgaizOchoaPascualMwanzaAngel

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: UD Logroñés II 4–0 Arnedo

UD Logroñés II beat Arnedo 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 14, 2024.

Goals: Pol Arnau (6'), Ricardo de Moraes (30', 65'), David Cabezas (34').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva UD Logroñés Campo 2 Hierba Artificial in Logroño.

UD Logroñés II vs Arnedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: UD Logroñés II 4–0 Arnedo