UD Logroñés II 0–0 Alberite: Result & Stats

UD Logroñés II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alberite

2/7/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 15Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

UD Logroñés II80%

×Draw13%

Alberite7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD Logroñés IIExpected goals in this matchAlberite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

0.73

UD Logroñés II

2.85

Alberite

0.73

UD Logroñés II creates 290% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 46 away

3.09

creates per match

0.85

0.61

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

UD Logroñés II

3.09

Alberite

0.85

allows per match

UD Logroñés II

0.61

Alberite

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

Alberite+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés II ↓

Alberite →

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

UD Logroñés II or draw

93%

UD Logroñés II or Alberite

87%

Draw or Alberite

20%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+

60%

Alberite wins by 2+

Team goals

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals

94%

UD Logroñés II 2+ goals

77%

UD Logroñés II 3+ goals

53%

Alberite 1+ goals

52%

Alberite 2+ goals

17%

Alberite 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)

92%

Alberite (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés II at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.61 · 79 matches

Alberite away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés II attack 3.09 + Alberite defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.85

Alberite attack 0.85 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

UD Logroñés II scores more

80%

level

13%

Alberite scores more

UD Logroñés II at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff