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UD Logroñés II vs Agoncillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

UD Logroñés II
UD Logroñés II
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Agoncillo
Agoncillo
3/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

UD Logroñés II68%
×Draw19%
Agoncillo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés II
2.26
Agoncillo
0.90

UD Logroñés II creates 151% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés II
3.09
Agoncillo
1.18

allows per match

UD Logroñés II
0.61
Agoncillo
1.43

finishing

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par
Agoncillo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés II ↓

Agoncillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

UD Logroñés II or draw
86%
UD Logroñés II or Agoncillo
81%
Draw or Agoncillo
32%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+
44%
Agoncillo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals
89%
UD Logroñés II 2+ goals
66%
UD Logroñés II 3+ goals
39%
Agoncillo 1+ goals
59%
Agoncillo 2+ goals
23%
Agoncillo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)
83%
Agoncillo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés II at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.61 · 79 matches

Agoncillo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés II attack 3.09 + Agoncillo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.26

Agoncillo attack 1.18 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

UD Logroñés II scores more
68%
level
19%
Agoncillo scores more
14%

UD Logroñés II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Logroñés II 5 – 2 Agoncillo

UD Logroñés II beat Agoncillo 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 15, 2026.