Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UD Caravaca vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
3/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 26Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

UD Caravaca40%
×Draw28%
UCAM Murcia II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Caravaca
1.23
UCAM Murcia II
1.08

UD Caravaca creates 14% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 110 away

creates per match

UD Caravaca
1.31
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

UD Caravaca
0.84
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw
68%
UD Caravaca or UCAM Murcia II
72%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
60%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+
17%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals
71%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
35%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
13%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
66%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
29%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
55%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UD Caravaca scores more
40%
level
28%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
32%

UD Caravaca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Caravaca vs UCAM Murcia II

UCAM Murcia II beat UD Caravaca 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Mayayo in Sangonera la Verde.