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UD Caravaca vs Racing Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Racing Murcia
Racing Murcia
4/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

UD Caravaca41%
×Draw29%
Racing Murcia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Caravaca
1.19
Racing Murcia
0.98

UD Caravaca creates 21% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 62 away

creates per match

UD Caravaca
1.31
Racing Murcia
1.13

allows per match

UD Caravaca
0.84
Racing Murcia
1.06

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par
Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

Racing Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw
70%
UD Caravaca or Racing Murcia
71%
Draw or Racing Murcia
59%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+
18%
Racing Murcia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals
70%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
33%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
12%
Racing Murcia 1+ goals
62%
Racing Murcia 2+ goals
26%
Racing Murcia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
57%
Racing Murcia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

Racing Murcia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + Racing Murcia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Racing Murcia attack 1.13 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

UD Caravaca scores more
41%
level
29%
Racing Murcia scores more
30%

UD Caravaca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: UD Caravaca 5–1 Racing Murcia

UD Caravaca beat Racing Murcia 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao in Caravaca de la Cruz.