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UD Caravaca vs Olímpico Totana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
5/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

UD Caravaca45%
×Draw28%
Olímpico Totana26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Caravaca
1.29
Olímpico Totana
0.91

UD Caravaca creates 42% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 50 away

creates per match

UD Caravaca
1.31
Olímpico Totana
0.98

allows per match

UD Caravaca
0.84
Olímpico Totana
1.28

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par
Olímpico Totana+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

Olímpico Totana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw
74%
UD Caravaca or Olímpico Totana
72%
Draw or Olímpico Totana
55%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+
21%
Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals
72%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
37%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
14%
Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
60%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
23%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
63%
Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

Olímpico Totana away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Olímpico Totana attack 0.98 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UD Caravaca scores more
45%
level
28%
Olímpico Totana scores more
26%

UD Caravaca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Caravaca 0 – 1 Olímpico Totana

Olímpico Totana beat UD Caravaca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao in Caravaca de la Cruz.