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UD Caravaca vs Los Garres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Los Garres
Los Garres
4/22/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

UD Caravaca49%
×Draw27%
Los Garres24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Caravaca
1.44
Los Garres
0.91

UD Caravaca creates 58% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 44 away

creates per match

UD Caravaca
1.31
Los Garres
0.98

allows per match

UD Caravaca
0.84
Los Garres
1.57

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par
Los Garres+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

Los Garres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw
76%
UD Caravaca or Los Garres
73%
Draw or Los Garres
51%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+
24%
Los Garres wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals
76%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
42%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
18%
Los Garres 1+ goals
60%
Los Garres 2+ goals
23%
Los Garres 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
67%
Los Garres (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

Los Garres away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + Los Garres defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Los Garres attack 0.98 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UD Caravaca scores more
49%
level
27%
Los Garres scores more
24%

UD Caravaca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Caravaca vs Los Garres

UD Caravaca beat Los Garres 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao in Caravaca de la Cruz.