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UD Caravaca vs Cartagena LU II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
10/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 10Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

UD Caravaca44%
×Draw28%
Cartagena LU II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Caravaca
1.28
Cartagena LU II
0.94

UD Caravaca creates 36% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 51 away

creates per match

UD Caravaca
1.31
Cartagena LU II
1.04

allows per match

UD Caravaca
0.84
Cartagena LU II
1.25

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par
Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

Cartagena LU II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw
73%
UD Caravaca or Cartagena LU II
72%
Draw or Cartagena LU II
56%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+
20%
Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals
72%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
37%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
14%
Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
61%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
24%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
62%
Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

Cartagena LU II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + Cartagena LU II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Cartagena LU II attack 1.04 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UD Caravaca scores more
44%
level
28%
Cartagena LU II scores more
27%

UD Caravaca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: UD Caravaca 1–1 Cartagena LU II

UD Caravaca and Cartagena LU II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao in Caravaca de la Cruz.