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Cartagena LU II vs UD Caravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
3/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 27Pinatar Arena Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cartagena LU II48%
×Draw26%
UD Caravaca27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena LU II
1.52
UD Caravaca
1.07

Cartagena LU II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 83 away

creates per match

Cartagena LU II
1.47
UD Caravaca
1.16

allows per match

Cartagena LU II
0.98
UD Caravaca
1.57

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par
UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

UD Caravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw
73%
Cartagena LU II or UD Caravaca
74%
Draw or UD Caravaca
52%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
24%
UD Caravaca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
78%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
45%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
20%
UD Caravaca 1+ goals
66%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
29%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
64%
UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

UD Caravaca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + UD Caravaca defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

UD Caravaca attack 1.16 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more
48%
level
26%
UD Caravaca scores more
27%

Cartagena LU II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena LU II 0 – 1 UD Caravaca

UD Caravaca beat Cartagena LU II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Pinatar Arena Football Center in San Pedro del Pinatar.