UD Caravaca 3–0 Balsicas Atlético: Result & Stats

UD Caravaca

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Balsicas Atlético

4/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 28Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

UD Caravaca52%

×Draw26%

Balsicas Atlético21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD CaravacaExpected goals in this matchBalsicas Atlético

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.83

UD Caravaca

1.48

Balsicas Atlético

0.83

UD Caravaca creates 78% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 51 away

1.31

creates per match

0.82

0.84

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

UD Caravaca

1.31

Balsicas Atlético

0.82

allows per match

UD Caravaca

0.84

Balsicas Atlético

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

Balsicas Atlético →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw

79%

UD Caravaca or Balsicas Atlético

74%

Draw or Balsicas Atlético

48%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+

27%

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals

77%

UD Caravaca 2+ goals

43%

UD Caravaca 3+ goals

19%

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals

56%

Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals

20%

Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)

71%

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

Balsicas Atlético away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Balsicas Atlético attack 0.82 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

UD Caravaca scores more

52%

level

26%

Balsicas Atlético scores more

21%

UD Caravaca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Caravaca vs Balsicas Atlético

UD Caravaca beat Balsicas Atlético 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao in Caravaca de la Cruz.

UD Caravaca vs Balsicas Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD Caravaca vs Balsicas Atlético