UD Caravaca 2–1 Atlético Pulpileño: Result & Stats

UD Caravaca

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Atlético Pulpileño

11/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

UD Caravaca37%

×Draw30%

Atlético Pulpileño33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD CaravacaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Pulpileño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.00

UD Caravaca

1.08

Atlético Pulpileño

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 93 away

1.31

creates per match

1.16

0.84

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

UD Caravaca

1.31

Atlético Pulpileño

1.16

allows per match

UD Caravaca

0.84

Atlético Pulpileño

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw

67%

UD Caravaca or Atlético Pulpileño

70%

Draw or Atlético Pulpileño

63%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+

15%

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals

66%

UD Caravaca 2+ goals

29%

UD Caravaca 3+ goals

10%

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals

63%

Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals

26%

Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)

53%

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.08

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

UD Caravaca scores more

37%

level

30%

Atlético Pulpileño scores more

33%

UD Caravaca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Caravaca vs Atlético Pulpileño

UD Caravaca beat Atlético Pulpileño 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao in Caravaca de la Cruz.

UD Caravaca vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD Caravaca vs Atlético Pulpileño