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UD Caravaca vs Águilas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Águilas
Águilas
4/2/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 28Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

UD Caravaca35%
×Draw31%
Águilas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Caravaca
1.00
Águilas
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 42 away

creates per match

UD Caravaca
1.31
Águilas
1.10

allows per match

UD Caravaca
0.84
Águilas
0.69

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par
Águilas+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

Águilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw
66%
UD Caravaca or Águilas
69%
Draw or Águilas
65%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+
13%
Águilas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals
63%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
26%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
8%
Águilas 1+ goals
62%
Águilas 2+ goals
25%
Águilas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
51%
Águilas (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

Águilas away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + Águilas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.00

Águilas attack 1.10 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

UD Caravaca scores more
35%
level
31%
Águilas scores more
34%

UD Caravaca at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Caravaca vs Águilas

Águilas beat UD Caravaca 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao in Caravaca de la Cruz.