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UCV vs Zamora FC — Primera División 2018

UCV
UCV
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Zamora FC
Zamora FC
2/28/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

UCV44%
×Draw27%
Zamora FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV
1.37
Zamora FC
1.04

UCV creates 32% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 136 away

creates per match

UCV
1.40
Zamora FC
1.03

allows per match

UCV
1.05
Zamora FC
1.34

finishing

UCV+0.00on par
Zamora FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Zamora FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UCV or draw
72%
UCV or Zamora FC
73%
Draw or Zamora FC
56%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+
21%
Zamora FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals
75%
UCV 2+ goals
40%
UCV 3+ goals
16%
Zamora FC 1+ goals
65%
Zamora FC 2+ goals
28%
Zamora FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)
61%
Zamora FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches

Zamora FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.40 + Zamora FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.37

Zamora FC attack 1.03 + UCV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UCV scores more
44%
level
27%
Zamora FC scores more
28%

UCV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCV vs Zamora FC

UCV beat Zamora FC 2-1 in Primera División on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.