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UCV vs Monagas SC — Primera División 2018

UCV
UCV
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Monagas SC
Monagas SC
2/23/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

UCV45%
×Draw26%
Monagas SC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV
1.44
Monagas SC
1.11

UCV creates 30% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 134 away

creates per match

UCV
1.40
Monagas SC
1.17

allows per match

UCV
1.05
Monagas SC
1.49

finishing

UCV+0.00on par
Monagas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Monagas SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UCV or draw
71%
UCV or Monagas SC
74%
Draw or Monagas SC
55%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+
22%
Monagas SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals
76%
UCV 2+ goals
42%
UCV 3+ goals
18%
Monagas SC 1+ goals
67%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
30%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)
60%
Monagas SC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches

Monagas SC away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.49 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.40 + Monagas SC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Monagas SC attack 1.17 + UCV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UCV scores more
45%
level
26%
Monagas SC scores more
29%

UCV at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCV vs Monagas SC

UCV and Monagas SC drew 1-1 in Primera División on February 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.