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UCV vs Metropolitanos FC — Primera División 2018

UCV
UCV
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
9/22/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

UCV44%
×Draw27%
Metropolitanos FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV
1.39
Metropolitanos FC
1.06

UCV creates 31% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 140 away

creates per match

UCV
1.40
Metropolitanos FC
1.07

allows per match

UCV
1.05
Metropolitanos FC
1.37

finishing

UCV+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UCV or draw
71%
UCV or Metropolitanos FC
73%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
56%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+
21%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals
75%
UCV 2+ goals
40%
UCV 3+ goals
16%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
65%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
29%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)
61%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.40 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.07 + UCV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UCV scores more
44%
level
27%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
29%

UCV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: UCV 1–4 Metropolitanos FC

Metropolitanos FC beat UCV 4-1 in Primera División on September 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.