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UCV vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

UCV
UCV
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
5/6/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

UCV51%
×Draw24%
Independiente del Valle25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV
1.67
Independiente del Valle
1.08

UCV creates 55% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 24 away

creates per match

UCV
1.50
Independiente del Valle
0.92

allows per match

UCV
1.25
Independiente del Valle
1.83

finishing

UCV+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

UCV or draw
75%
UCV or Independiente del Valle
76%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
49%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+
27%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals
81%
UCV 2+ goals
50%
UCV 3+ goals
23%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
66%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
29%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)
67%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.50 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

Independiente del Valle attack 0.92 + UCV defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

UCV scores more
51%
level
24%
Independiente del Valle scores more
25%

UCV at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Libertadores: UCV 2–0 Independiente del Valle

UCV beat Independiente del Valle 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 6, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.