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UCV vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Primera División 2018

UCV
UCV
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
5/12/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - Quadrangular - 4Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

UCV47%
×Draw27%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV
1.44
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.02

UCV creates 41% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 64 away

creates per match

UCV
1.40
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.98

allows per match

UCV
1.05
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.48

finishing

UCV+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UCV or draw
73%
UCV or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
73%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
53%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+
23%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals
76%
UCV 2+ goals
42%
UCV 3+ goals
18%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
64%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
27%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)
64%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.40 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 0.98 + UCV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UCV scores more
47%
level
27%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
27%

UCV at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: UCV 4–0 CD Hermanos Colmenarez

UCV beat CD Hermanos Colmenarez 4-0 in Primera División on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.