UCV 1–0 CD Hermanos Colmenarez: Result & Stats

UCV

FT

1 – 0

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

12/10/2020

Segunda División · Championship - FinalEstadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

UCV43%

×Draw26%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCVExpected goals in this matchCD Hermanos Colmenarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.21

UCV

1.46

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.21

UCV creates 21% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 37 away

1.27

creates per match

1.49

0.93

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

UCV

1.27

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.49

allows per match

UCV

0.93

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCV+0.00on par

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

UCV or draw

69%

UCV or CD Hermanos Colmenarez

74%

Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez

57%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+

21%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals

77%

UCV 2+ goals

43%

UCV 3+ goals

18%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals

70%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals

34%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)

58%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.27 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.49 + UCV defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UCV scores more

43%

level

26%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more

31%

UCV at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff