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UCV vs CA Furrial — Segunda División 2018

UCV
UCV
FT
1 – 3
CA Furrial
CA Furrial
8/18/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 6Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara (Barquisimeto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

UCV50%
×Draw27%
CA Furrial24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV
1.46
CA Furrial
0.92

UCV creates 59% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 33 away

creates per match

UCV
1.27
CA Furrial
0.91

allows per match

UCV
0.93
CA Furrial
1.64

finishing

UCV+0.00on par
CA Furrial+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

CA Furrial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

UCV or draw
76%
UCV or CA Furrial
73%
Draw or CA Furrial
50%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+
25%
CA Furrial wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals
77%
UCV 2+ goals
43%
UCV 3+ goals
18%
CA Furrial 1+ goals
60%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
23%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)
68%
CA Furrial (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

CA Furrial away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.27 + CA Furrial defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

CA Furrial attack 0.91 + UCV defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

UCV scores more
50%
level
27%
CA Furrial scores more
24%

UCV at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCV vs CA Furrial

CA Furrial beat UCV 3-1 in Segunda División on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara (Barquisimeto).