UCV Moquegua vs Union Comercio — Segunda División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
UCV Moquegua41%
Union Comercio32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
UCV Moquegua creates 17% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 45 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
UCV Moquegua ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
UCV Moquegua at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches
Union Comercio away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
UCV Moquegua attack 1.62 + Union Comercio defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37
Union Comercio attack 1.33 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
UCV Moquegua at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "UCV Moquegua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sampleUnion Comercio
Deportivo LlacuabambaUCV Moquegua
Comerciantes
Molinos El Pirata
Bentín Tacna Heroica
Santos
Cesar Vallejo
FC Cajamarca
Carlos A. Mannucci
U. San Martin
Deportiva Agropecuaria
Academia Cantolao
Deportivo Coopsol
Alianza Universidad
Sport Huancayo 2
Ayacucho FC
Estudiantil CNI
Minas
Deportivo Binacional
San MarcosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
UCV Moquegua host Union Comercio on Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 18:15. The match is part of the Segunda División 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: UCV Moquegua vs Union Comercio
UCV Moquegua beat Union Comercio 1-0 in Segunda División on May 18, 2025.
Goals: J. Collazos (66').
The match was played at Estadio 25 de Noviembre in Moquegua.