UCV Moquegua 1–1 U. San Martin: Result & Stats

UCV Moquegua

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

U. San Martin

R. Rodríguez 27'

G. Roque 64'

4/28/2024

Segunda División · Round 4Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

UCV Moquegua47%

×Draw26%

U. San Martin27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCV MoqueguaExpected goals in this matchU. San Martin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.10

UCV Moquegua

1.52

U. San Martin

1.10

UCV Moquegua creates 38% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 42 away

1.62

creates per match

1.21

1.00

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

UCV Moquegua

1.62

U. San Martin

1.21

allows per match

UCV Moquegua

1.00

U. San Martin

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par

U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV Moquegua ↓

U. San Martin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

UCV Moquegua or draw

73%

UCV Moquegua or U. San Martin

74%

Draw or U. San Martin

53%

Winning margin

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+

24%

U. San Martin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals

78%

UCV Moquegua 2+ goals

45%

UCV Moquegua 3+ goals

20%

U. San Martin 1+ goals

67%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

30%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)

63%

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV Moquegua at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.43 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV Moquegua attack 1.62 + U. San Martin defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

U. San Martin attack 1.21 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UCV Moquegua scores more

47%

level

26%

U. San Martin scores more

27%

UCV Moquegua at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UCV Moquegua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

36'

44'

44'

45+4'

57'

C. Flores← R. Ramírez

57'

J. Reynoso← W. Vásquez

57'

M. Menéndez← R. Rodríguez

59'

59'

64'

66'

66'

75'

Jerjes Jiménez← F. Fano

75'

L. Centurión← J. Cornejo

83'

J. Falconí← J. Arroé

83'

M. Matzuda← D. Ismodes

88'

G. Roque

90'

M. Matzuda

UCV

U.

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rodríguez

Manager: E. Torres

57'▲C. Flores←▼R. Ramírez

57'▲J. Reynoso←▼W. Vásquez

57'▲M. Menéndez←▼R. Rodríguez

75'▲Jerjes Jiménez←▼F. Fano

75'▲L. Centurión←▼J. Cornejo

UCV Moquegua substitutes

FloresReynosoMenéndezJiménezCenturiónGastelúCaytuiroCuevaFigueroa

Manager: D. Cisneros

66'▲J. Cano←▼S. Cornejo

66'▲J. Gómez←▼H. Vergara

83'▲J. Falconí←▼J. Arroé

83'▲M. Matzuda←▼D. Ismodes

U. San Martin substitutes

CanoGómezFalconíMatzudaArteagaDelgadoCubaVargasSotelo

Match Recap: UCV Moquegua vs U. San Martin

UCV Moquegua and U. San Martin drew 1-1 in Segunda División on April 28, 2024.

Goals: R. Rodríguez (27'), G. Roque (64').

The match was played at Estadio 25 de Noviembre in Moquegua.

UCV Moquegua vs U. San Martin — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: UCV Moquegua vs U. San Martin