U. San Martin 2–2 UCV Moquegua: Result & Stats

U. San Martin

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

UCV Moquegua

I. Chumpitáz 90+7'

D. Ismodes 82'

L. Centurión 89'

P. Lovera 57'

6/24/2024

Segunda División · Round 13Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

U. San Martin38%

×Draw28%

UCV Moquegua34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. San MartinExpected goals in this matchUCV Moquegua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.17

U. San Martin

1.25

UCV Moquegua

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 25 away

1.23

creates per match

1.20

1.13

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

U. San Martin

1.23

UCV Moquegua

1.20

allows per match

U. San Martin

1.13

UCV Moquegua

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

UCV Moquegua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw

66%

U. San Martin or UCV Moquegua

72%

Draw or UCV Moquegua

62%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+

17%

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals

71%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

36%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

13%

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals

69%

UCV Moquegua 2+ goals

33%

UCV Moquegua 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

53%

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

UCV Moquegua away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.23 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

UCV Moquegua attack 1.20 + U. San Martin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

U. San Martin scores more

38%

level

28%

UCV Moquegua scores more

34%

U. San Martin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

46'

F. Melgar← J. Arroé

50'

55'

R. Rodríguez← J. Tapia

56'

57'

P. Lovera

62'

65'

D. Ismodes← M. Matzuda

65'

E. Alvarado← F. Vera

65'

J. Delgado← S. Cornejo

67'

L. Centurión← P. Lovera

67'

Jerjes Jiménez← Jimmy Jiménez

81'

82'

D. Ismodes

85'

J. Salem← J. Gómez

86'

O. Cueva← A. Dávila

86'

R. Ramírez← C. Flores

89'

L. Centurión

90+7'

I. Chumpitáz

U.

UCV

Figueroa

Granda

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Cisneros

46'▲F. Melgar←▼J. Arroé

65'▲D. Ismodes←▼M. Matzuda

65'▲E. Alvarado←▼F. Vera

65'▲J. Delgado←▼S. Cornejo

85'▲J. Salem←▼J. Gómez

U. San Martin substitutes

MelgarIsmodesAlvaradoDelgadoSalemRoqueHuertoSoteloGonzáles

Manager: J. Serna

55'▲R. Rodríguez←▼J. Tapia

67'▲L. Centurión←▼P. Lovera

67'▲Jerjes Jiménez←▼Jimmy Jiménez

86'▲O. Cueva←▼A. Dávila

86'▲R. Ramírez←▼C. Flores

UCV Moquegua substitutes

RodríguezCenturiónJiménezCuevaRamírezOlivaCaytuiroVásquezGastelú

Segunda División: U. San Martin 2–2 UCV Moquegua

U. San Martin and UCV Moquegua drew 2-2 in Segunda División on June 24, 2024.

Goals: P. Lovera (57'), D. Ismodes (82'), L. Centurión (89'), I. Chumpitáz (90+7').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.

U. San Martin vs UCV Moquegua — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: U. San Martin 2–2 UCV Moquegua