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UCV Moquegua vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2026

UCV Moquegua
UCV Moquegua
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
Y. Zapata 61'
E. Lastre 49'
Y. Mena 21'
3/7/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

UCV Moquegua47%
×Draw25%
Sport Huancayo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV Moquegua
1.57
Sport Huancayo
1.13

UCV Moquegua creates 39% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 142 away

creates per match

UCV Moquegua
1.67
Sport Huancayo
1.04

allows per match

UCV Moquegua
1.22
Sport Huancayo
1.48

finishing

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV Moquegua ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

UCV Moquegua or draw
73%
UCV Moquegua or Sport Huancayo
75%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
53%

Winning margin

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+
24%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals
79%
UCV Moquegua 2+ goals
46%
UCV Moquegua 3+ goals
21%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
68%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
31%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)
63%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV Moquegua at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.48 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV Moquegua attack 1.67 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sport Huancayo attack 1.04 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UCV Moquegua scores more
47%
level
25%
Sport Huancayo scores more
27%

UCV Moquegua at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UCV Moquegua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
E. LastreUCV MoqueguaUCV Moquegua · F
8.0

Match Events

13'
Nicolas Amasifuen
21'
Y. Mena↳ H. Angeles
30'
E. Lastre← K. Ruiz
35'
Diego Ramírez
35'
Jeferson Collazos
36'
Aldair Perleche
37'
Ángel Zamudio
43'
Jeferson CollazosMissed penalty
46'
N. Chavez← D. Ramirez
49'
E. Lastre↳ N. Chavez
58'
R. Campodonico← J. J. Canela Torres
58'
D. Carabano← E. Villar
61'
Y. Zapata↳ N. Chavez
62'
P. Magallanes← N. Lujan
69'
F. Caballero← J. Sanguinetti
69'
R. Huaccha← J. Rostaing
73'
C. Ramirez← A. Davila
78'
Carlos Grados
83'
Bryan Angulo← J. Collazos
83'
E. Montenegro← A. Perleche
89'
Hugo ÁngelesPenalty cancelled
90+6'
Eros Montenegro
90+8'
Franco CaballeroMissed penalty
90+6'
Ronal HuacchaPenalty confirmed

Possession

41%UCV

Shots

17UCV

Pass accuracy

47%UCV

Statistics

UCVSport
Overview
41%Possession59%
17Total Shots8
3Corners4
20Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots8
5On Target3
8Off Target4
4Blocked1
9Inside Box5
8Outside Box3
Passing
41%Possession59%
250Total Passes360
171Accurate Passes280
68%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
20Fouls12
6Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: UCV Moquegua vs Sport Huancayo

UCV Moquegua beat Sport Huancayo 2-1 in Primera División on March 7, 2026.

Goals: Y. Mena (21'), E. Lastre (49'), Y. Zapata (61').

Sport Huancayo controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio 25 de Noviembre in Moquegua.