UCV Moquegua 3–0 Juan Pablo II College

UCV Moquegua

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Juan Pablo II College

J. Collazos 70', 49'

E. Lastre 55'

4/14/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 10Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

UCV Moquegua59%

×Draw22%

Juan Pablo II College19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCV MoqueguaExpected goals in this matchJuan Pablo II College

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.02

UCV Moquegua

1.98

Juan Pablo II College

1.02

UCV Moquegua creates 94% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

1.67

creates per match

0.81

1.22

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

UCV Moquegua

1.67

Juan Pablo II College

0.81

allows per match

UCV Moquegua

1.22

Juan Pablo II College

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par

Juan Pablo II College+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV Moquegua ↓

Juan Pablo II College →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

UCV Moquegua or draw

81%

UCV Moquegua or Juan Pablo II College

78%

Draw or Juan Pablo II College

41%

Winning margin

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+

36%

Juan Pablo II College wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals

86%

UCV Moquegua 2+ goals

59%

UCV Moquegua 3+ goals

31%

Juan Pablo II College 1+ goals

64%

Juan Pablo II College 2+ goals

27%

Juan Pablo II College 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)

76%

Juan Pablo II College (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV Moquegua at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Juan Pablo II College away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV Moquegua attack 1.67 + Juan Pablo II College defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.98

Juan Pablo II College attack 0.81 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

UCV Moquegua scores more

59%

level

22%

Juan Pablo II College scores more

19%

UCV Moquegua at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "UCV Moquegua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

E. Lastre

UCV Moquegua · M

9.3

Match Events

5'

Ricardo Chipao

22'

Paolo FuentesCard upgrade

23'

Paolo Fuentes

28'

J. Collazos← Bryan Angulo

41'

Eros Montenegro

46'

R. Torres← R. Chipao

46'

A. Perleche← E. Montenegro

49'

J. Collazos↳ E. Lastre

55'

E. Lastre↳ N. Amasifuen

62'

I. Iriarte← J. Toledo

62'

J. Barreto← R. Aliaga

70'

J. Collazos↳ E. Lastre

77'

H. Bazan← M. Juambeltz

77'

77'

80'

86'

88'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UCVJuan

Overview

55%Possession45%

5Total Shots9

3Corners5

18Fouls8

Shots

5Total Shots9

3On Target2

2Off Target4

0Blocked3

4Inside Box5

1Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

315Total Passes255

249Accurate Passes192

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2