Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UCV Moquegua vs Deportivo Garcilaso — Primera División 2026

UCV Moquegua
UCV Moquegua
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
K. Ruiz 57'
2/23/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

UCV Moquegua45%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Garcilaso30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV Moquegua
1.49
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.17

UCV Moquegua creates 27% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 61 away

creates per match

UCV Moquegua
1.67
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.11

allows per match

UCV Moquegua
1.22
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.31

finishing

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par
Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV Moquegua ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

UCV Moquegua or draw
70%
UCV Moquegua or Deportivo Garcilaso
74%
Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso
55%

Winning margin

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+
22%
Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals
77%
UCV Moquegua 2+ goals
44%
UCV Moquegua 3+ goals
19%
Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)
60%
Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV Moquegua at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV Moquegua attack 1.67 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.49

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.11 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UCV Moquegua scores more
45%
level
26%
Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
30%

UCV Moquegua at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "UCV Moquegua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
K. RuizUCV MoqueguaUCV Moquegua · M
7.9

Match Events

8'
Allonso Davila
22'
Edgar Lastre
38'
C. I. Ramos Rodriguez← A. Ascues
45+2'
Aldair Perleche
46'
K. Ruiz← E. Lastre
46'
K. Sandoval← J. Sinisterra
47'
Orlando Nuñez
57'
K. Ruiz↳ R. Chipao
60'
Kevin Sandoval
69'
Francisco Arancibia
73'
B. Da Silva← F. Arancibia
77'
J. Granda← J. Lojas
77'
C. Ramirez← D. Ramirez
83'
Beto Da Silva
87'
A. Salazar← E. Canales
88'
Bryan Angulo← Y. Zapata
88'
C. Mejia← R. Chipao
88'
C. Olivares← A. Graneros
90+3'
Horacio Benincasa

Possession

32%UCV

Shots

5UCV

Pass accuracy

44%UCV

Statistics

UCVDeportivo
Overview
32%Possession68%
5Total Shots13
3Corners7
16Fouls12
Shots
5Total Shots13
2On Target2
2Off Target7
1Blocked4
3Inside Box5
2Outside Box8
Passing
32%Possession68%
205Total Passes415
132Accurate Passes338
64%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls12
3Yellow Cards5
2Offsides4

Match Recap: UCV Moquegua vs Deportivo Garcilaso

UCV Moquegua beat Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 in Primera División on February 23, 2026.

Goals: K. Ruiz (57').

Deportivo Garcilaso controlled possession (68%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio 25 de Noviembre in Moquegua.