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UCV Moquegua vs Cusco — Primera División 2026

UCV Moquegua
UCV Moquegua
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cusco
Cusco
E. Lastre 65'
F. Callejo 90'
J. Tevez 22'
3/21/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 8Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

UCV Moquegua48%
×Draw24%
Cusco28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV Moquegua
1.66
Cusco
1.21

UCV Moquegua creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 89 away

creates per match

UCV Moquegua
1.67
Cusco
1.19

allows per match

UCV Moquegua
1.22
Cusco
1.65

finishing

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par
Cusco+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV Moquegua ↓

Cusco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

UCV Moquegua or draw
72%
UCV Moquegua or Cusco
76%
Draw or Cusco
52%

Winning margin

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+
25%
Cusco wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals
81%
UCV Moquegua 2+ goals
49%
UCV Moquegua 3+ goals
23%
Cusco 1+ goals
70%
Cusco 2+ goals
34%
Cusco 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)
63%
Cusco (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV Moquegua at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.65 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV Moquegua attack 1.67 + Cusco defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cusco attack 1.19 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UCV Moquegua scores more
48%
level
24%
Cusco scores more
28%

UCV Moquegua at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UCV Moquegua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
F. CallejoCuscoCusco · F
7.7

Match Events

22'
J. Tevez↳ J. Manzaneda
46'
E. Montenegro← A. Perleche
47'
Aldair Fuentes
57'
N. Chavez← D. Ramirez
57'
E. Lastre← J. Lojas
59'
Ricardo Chipao 
62'
Pedro Diaz
65'
E. Lastre
66'
Jose Granda
82'
F. Callejo← J. Tevez
82'
Herrera Joel← C. Diez
84'
Diego Soto
86'
C. Ramirez← Y. Zapata
90+2'
J. Jimenez← A. Davila
90'
F. Callejo

Possession

48%UCV

Shots

13UCV

Pass accuracy

50%UCV

Statistics

UCVCusco
Overview
48%Possession52%
13Total Shots11
1.00Expected Goals (xG)1.60
4Corners3
10Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots11
4On Target7
7Off Target4
2Blocked0
5Inside Box8
8Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
302Total Passes335
237Accurate Passes266
78%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides3

Match Recap: UCV Moquegua vs Cusco

Cusco beat UCV Moquegua 2-1 in Primera División on March 21, 2026.

Goals: J. Tevez (22'), E. Lastre (65'), F. Callejo (90').

Cusco controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio 25 de Noviembre in Moquegua.