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UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2018

UCV Moquegua
UCV Moquegua
Preview
16:00
Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
7/18/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1Estadio 25 de Noviembre
56%
UCV Moquegua
model favours
56%23%21%

100% of Comerciantes Unidos’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

UCV Moquegua56%
×Draw23%
Comerciantes Unidos21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV Moquegua
1.80
Comerciantes Unidos
1.01

UCV Moquegua creates 78% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 63 away

creates per match

UCV Moquegua
1.63
Comerciantes Unidos
0.89

allows per match

UCV Moquegua
1.13
Comerciantes Unidos
1.98

finishing

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par
Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV Moquegua ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

UCV Moquegua or draw
79%
UCV Moquegua or Comerciantes Unidos
77%
Draw or Comerciantes Unidos
44%

Winning margin

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+
32%
Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals
83%
UCV Moquegua 2+ goals
54%
UCV Moquegua 3+ goals
27%
Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
64%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
27%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)
73%
Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV Moquegua at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV Moquegua attack 1.63 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.80

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

UCV Moquegua scores more
56%
level
23%
Comerciantes Unidos scores more
21%

UCV Moquegua at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "UCV Moquegua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Comerciantes Unidos score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 18% of Comerciantes Unidos’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Moquegua
DDWLD
Unidos
DLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: UCV Moquegua host Comerciantes Unidos

July 18, 2026: UCV Moquegua take on Comerciantes Unidos in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

UCV Moquegua host Comerciantes Unidos at Estadio 25 de Noviembre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.