Comerciantes Unidos 1–0 UCV Moquegua

Comerciantes Unidos

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UCV Moquegua

R. Vilca 50'

2/2/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos50%

×Draw27%

UCV Moquegua23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comerciantes UnidosExpected goals in this matchUCV Moquegua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.86

Comerciantes Unidos

1.40

UCV Moquegua

0.86

Comerciantes Unidos creates 63% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 9 away

1.14

creates per match

0.44

1.29

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.14

UCV Moquegua

0.44

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.29

UCV Moquegua

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

UCV Moquegua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw

77%

Comerciantes Unidos or UCV Moquegua

73%

Draw or UCV Moquegua

50%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

24%

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

75%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

41%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

17%

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals

58%

UCV Moquegua 2+ goals

21%

UCV Moquegua 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

68%

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

UCV Moquegua away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.14 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

UCV Moquegua attack 0.44 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

50%

level

27%

UCV Moquegua scores more

23%

Comerciantes Unidos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

R. Vilca

Comerciantes Unidos · M

8.0

Match Events

38'

Edgar Lastre

45+1'

Josuee Herrera

50'

R. Vilca↳ F. Rojas

55'

M. Carranza← W. Ayovi

64'

Aldair Perleche

66'

A. Davila← Y. Zapata

68'

Juan Rodríguez

75'

M. P. Carpio Ferro← J. Herrera

75'

E. M. Perez Azambuya← M. Sen

78'

D. Ramirez← N. Chavez

78'

J. Collazos← C. Mejia

84'

J. Parodi← C. A. Correa Flores

84'

Y. Vilchez← R. Vilca

86'

Daniel Lino

86'

J. Lopez← E. Lastre

86'

R. Chipao← C. Ramirez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ComerciantesUCV

Overview

48%Possession52%

10Total Shots6

0.34Expected Goals (xG)0.24

5Corners3

17Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots6

5On Target3

4Off Target2

1Blocked1

5Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

255Total Passes276

182Accurate Passes196

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2