UCV Moquegua 2–2 ADT: Result & Stats

UCV Moquegua

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

ADT

Bryan Angulo 90' (pen)

J. Collazos 21'

L. Gomez 90'

J. Rojas 47'

5/9/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 14Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

UCV Moquegua50%

×Draw25%

ADT25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCV MoqueguaExpected goals in this matchADT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.09

UCV Moquegua

1.65

ADT

1.09

UCV Moquegua creates 51% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 78 away

1.67

creates per match

0.97

1.22

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

UCV Moquegua

1.67

ADT

0.97

allows per match

UCV Moquegua

1.22

ADT

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par

ADT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV Moquegua ↓

ADT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

UCV Moquegua or draw

75%

UCV Moquegua or ADT

75%

Draw or ADT

50%

Winning margin

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+

27%

ADT wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals

81%

UCV Moquegua 2+ goals

49%

UCV Moquegua 3+ goals

23%

ADT 1+ goals

66%

ADT 2+ goals

30%

ADT 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)

67%

ADT (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV Moquegua at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

ADT away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV Moquegua attack 1.67 + ADT defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.65

ADT attack 0.97 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

UCV Moquegua scores more

50%

level

25%

ADT scores more

25%

UCV Moquegua at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UCV Moquegua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Rojas

ADT · F

8.0

Match Events

17'

J. Bauman← H. Rengifo

21'

J. Collazos↳ E. Lastre

24'

C. Ramirez← J. Granda

34'

John Narváez

42'

Edgar Lastre

46'

J. Rojas← N. Rengifo

46'

L. Gomez← A. Gutierrez

47'

J. Rojas

56'

Bryan Angulo← N. Chavez

56'

58'

71'

87'

87'

E. Montenegro← J. Collazos

90'

90+7'

90+6'

90'

90+5'

L. E. Benites Vargas←

90'

L. Gomez

90'

Bryan AnguloPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UCVADT

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots10

1.62Expected Goals (xG)0.88

3Corners0

11Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots10

7On Target4

3Off Target4

1Blocked2

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

283Total Passes341

211Accurate Passes266

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2