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UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

UCSA
UCSA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
11/3/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 16Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

UCSA59%
×Draw21%
Lokomotiv Kyiv19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCSA
1.99
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.04

UCSA creates 91% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 37 away

creates per match

UCSA
2.62
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.54

allows per match

UCSA
0.54
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.35

finishing

UCSA+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCSA ↓

Lokomotiv Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

UCSA or draw
81%
UCSA or Lokomotiv Kyiv
79%
Draw or Lokomotiv Kyiv
41%

Winning margin

UCSA wins by 2+
35%
Lokomotiv Kyiv wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

UCSA 1+ goals
86%
UCSA 2+ goals
59%
UCSA 3+ goals
32%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 1+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 2+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UCSA (draw refunded)
75%
Lokomotiv Kyiv (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCSA at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Lokomotiv Kyiv away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCSA attack 2.62 + Lokomotiv Kyiv defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.99

Lokomotiv Kyiv attack 1.54 + UCSA defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

UCSA scores more
59%
level
21%
Lokomotiv Kyiv scores more
19%

UCSA at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "UCSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv

UCSA and Lokomotiv Kyiv drew 1-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova in Kiev.