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UCSA vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Persha Liga 2019

UCSA
UCSA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
5/2/2025Persha LigaPersha Liga · Championship Round - 5Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

UCSA35%
×Draw28%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCSA
1.12
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 36 away

creates per match

UCSA
1.43
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.08

allows per match

UCSA
1.25
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.81

finishing

UCSA+0.00on par
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCSA ↓

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

UCSA or draw
63%
UCSA or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
72%
Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
65%

Winning margin

UCSA wins by 2+
14%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

UCSA 1+ goals
67%
UCSA 2+ goals
31%
UCSA 3+ goals
10%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
69%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
33%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

UCSA (draw refunded)
48%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCSA at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCSA attack 1.43 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.12

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.08 + UCSA defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

UCSA scores more
35%
level
28%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
37%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: UCSA 0–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat UCSA 1-0 in Persha Liga on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova in Kyiv.