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UCD vs Wexford — First Division 2019

UCD
UCD
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wexford
Wexford
4/6/2026First DivisionFirst Division · Round 9UCD Bowl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

UCD50%
×Draw24%
Wexford25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCD
1.66
Wexford
1.11

UCD creates 50% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 119 away

creates per match

UCD
1.56
Wexford
1.18

allows per match

UCD
1.04
Wexford
1.76

finishing

UCD+0.00on par
Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCD ↓

Wexford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

UCD or draw
75%
UCD or Wexford
76%
Draw or Wexford
50%

Winning margin

UCD wins by 2+
27%
Wexford wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UCD 1+ goals
81%
UCD 2+ goals
49%
UCD 3+ goals
23%
Wexford 1+ goals
67%
Wexford 2+ goals
30%
Wexford 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

UCD (draw refunded)
66%
Wexford (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCD at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.04 · 72 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCD attack 1.56 + Wexford defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.66

Wexford attack 1.18 + UCD defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

UCD scores more
50%
level
24%
Wexford scores more
25%

UCD at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UCD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCD vs Wexford

UCD and Wexford drew 0-0 in First Division on April 6, 2026.

The match was played at UCD Bowl in Dublin.