UCD 4–1 Cabinteely: Result & Stats | First Division

UCD

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cabinteely

4/16/2021

First Division · Round 4UCD Bowl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

UCD45%

×Draw25%

Cabinteely30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCDExpected goals in this matchCabinteely

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.21

UCD

1.53

Cabinteely

1.21

UCD creates 26% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 36 away

1.56

creates per match

1.39

1.04

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

UCD

1.56

Cabinteely

1.39

allows per match

UCD

1.04

Cabinteely

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCD+0.00on par

Cabinteely+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCD ↓

Cabinteely →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

UCD or draw

70%

UCD or Cabinteely

75%

Draw or Cabinteely

55%

Winning margin

UCD wins by 2+

22%

Cabinteely wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

UCD 1+ goals

78%

UCD 2+ goals

45%

UCD 3+ goals

20%

Cabinteely 1+ goals

70%

Cabinteely 2+ goals

34%

Cabinteely 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

UCD (draw refunded)

60%

Cabinteely (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCD at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.04 · 72 matches

Cabinteely away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCD attack 1.56 + Cabinteely defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.53

Cabinteely attack 1.39 + UCD defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UCD scores more

45%

level

25%

Cabinteely scores more

30%

UCD at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "UCD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff