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UCC Youngsters vs Police National — Division One League 2025

UCC Youngsters
UCC Youngsters
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Police National
Police National
10/19/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UCC Youngsters40%
×Draw30%
Police National30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCC Youngsters
1.14
Police National
0.93

UCC Youngsters creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

UCC Youngsters
1.07
Police National
0.47

allows per match

UCC Youngsters
1.40
Police National
1.20

finishing

UCC Youngsters+0.00on par
Police National+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCC Youngsters ↓

Police National →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

UCC Youngsters or draw
70%
UCC Youngsters or Police National
70%
Draw or Police National
60%

Winning margin

UCC Youngsters wins by 2+
17%
Police National wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UCC Youngsters 1+ goals
68%
UCC Youngsters 2+ goals
32%
UCC Youngsters 3+ goals
11%
Police National 1+ goals
61%
Police National 2+ goals
24%
Police National 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UCC Youngsters (draw refunded)
58%
Police National (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCC Youngsters at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Police National away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCC Youngsters attack 1.07 + Police National defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Police National attack 0.47 + UCC Youngsters defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UCC Youngsters scores more
40%
level
30%
Police National scores more
30%

UCC Youngsters at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UCC Youngsters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCC Youngsters vs Police National

UCC Youngsters beat Police National 1-0 in Division One League on October 19, 2025.