UCC Youngsters 2–2 PAC Academy: Result & Stats

UCC Youngsters

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

PAC Academy

12/28/2025

Division One League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UCC Youngsters37%

×Draw29%

PAC Academy33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCC YoungstersExpected goals in this matchPAC Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.06

UCC Youngsters

1.14

PAC Academy

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.07

creates per match

0.73

1.40

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

UCC Youngsters

1.07

PAC Academy

0.73

allows per match

UCC Youngsters

1.40

PAC Academy

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCC Youngsters+0.00on par

PAC Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCC Youngsters ↓

PAC Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

UCC Youngsters or draw

67%

UCC Youngsters or PAC Academy

71%

Draw or PAC Academy

63%

Winning margin

UCC Youngsters wins by 2+

15%

PAC Academy wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

UCC Youngsters 1+ goals

68%

UCC Youngsters 2+ goals

32%

UCC Youngsters 3+ goals

11%

PAC Academy 1+ goals

65%

PAC Academy 2+ goals

29%

PAC Academy 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

UCC Youngsters (draw refunded)

53%

PAC Academy (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCC Youngsters at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

PAC Academy away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCC Youngsters attack 1.07 + PAC Academy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

PAC Academy attack 0.73 + UCC Youngsters defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

UCC Youngsters scores more

37%

level

29%

PAC Academy scores more

33%

UCC Youngsters at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "UCC Youngsters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff