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UCC Youngsters vs Ebony FC — Division One League 2025

UCC Youngsters
UCC Youngsters
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ebony FC
Ebony FC
11/9/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UCC Youngsters38%
×Draw27%
Ebony FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCC Youngsters
1.30
Ebony FC
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

UCC Youngsters
1.07
Ebony FC
1.07

allows per match

UCC Youngsters
1.40
Ebony FC
1.53

finishing

UCC Youngsters+0.00on par
Ebony FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCC Youngsters ↓

Ebony FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UCC Youngsters or draw
65%
UCC Youngsters or Ebony FC
73%
Draw or Ebony FC
62%

Winning margin

UCC Youngsters wins by 2+
17%
Ebony FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

UCC Youngsters 1+ goals
73%
UCC Youngsters 2+ goals
37%
UCC Youngsters 3+ goals
14%
Ebony FC 1+ goals
71%
Ebony FC 2+ goals
35%
Ebony FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

UCC Youngsters (draw refunded)
52%
Ebony FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCC Youngsters at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Ebony FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCC Youngsters attack 1.07 + Ebony FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ebony FC attack 1.07 + UCC Youngsters defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

UCC Youngsters scores more
38%
level
27%
Ebony FC scores more
35%

UCC Youngsters at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UCC Youngsters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCC Youngsters vs Ebony FC

Ebony FC beat UCC Youngsters 2-0 in Division One League on November 9, 2025.