Ucam Murcia 3–0 Real Betis II: Result & Stats

Ucam Murcia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Betis II

Manu Ramírez 90'

Chuma 78'

Isra Sala 2'

10/30/2022

League #878 · Group 4 - 9Estadio de La Condomina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ucam Murcia60%

×Draw29%

Real Betis II11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ucam MurciaExpected goals in this matchReal Betis II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.38

Ucam Murcia

1.29

Real Betis II

0.38

Ucam Murcia creates 239% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.44

creates per match

0.43

0.33

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Ucam Murcia

1.44

Real Betis II

0.43

allows per match

Ucam Murcia

0.33

Real Betis II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ucam Murcia+0.00on par

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No77
Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ucam Murcia ↓

Real Betis II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–17%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Ucam Murcia or draw

89%

Ucam Murcia or Real Betis II

71%

Draw or Real Betis II

40%

Winning margin

Ucam Murcia wins by 2+

29%

Real Betis II wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Ucam Murcia 1+ goals

72%

Ucam Murcia 2+ goals

37%

Ucam Murcia 3+ goals

14%

Real Betis II 1+ goals

32%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

6%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Ucam Murcia (draw refunded)

85%

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ucam Murcia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ucam Murcia attack 1.44 + Real Betis II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Real Betis II attack 0.43 + Ucam Murcia defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ucam Murcia scores more

60%

level

29%

Real Betis II scores more

11%

Ucam Murcia at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ucam Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Isra Sala

46'

Ginés Sorroche← José Lara

64'

Isra← Isra Sala

70'

Álvaro Martínez← Xavi Pleguezuelo

70'

Marchena← Carlos León

75'

Chumbi← Chuma

75'

José Fran← Alfredo Gutiérrez

78'

Manu Morillo← Visus

78'

Chuma

90+5'

G. Sorroche Pinero

90'

Manu Ramírez

Ucam

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Chuma

▼

Gutiérrez

⚽

▼

Sala

Manager: Jorge Romero

64'▲Isra←▼Isra Sala

75'▲Chumbi←▼Chuma

75'▲José Fran←▼Alfredo Gutiérrez

Ucam Murcia substitutes

IsraChumbiFranRamírezMarínMayoZorro

Manager: Aitor Martínez

46'▲Ginés Sorroche←▼José Lara

70'▲Álvaro Martínez←▼Xavi Pleguezuelo

70'▲Marchena←▼Carlos León

78'▲Manu Morillo←▼Visus

Real Betis II substitutes

SorrocheMartínezMarchenaMorilloSierraTassembedoJosan