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Ucam Murcia vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ucam Murcia
Ucam Murcia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
5/1/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Estadio de La Condomina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ucam Murcia45%
×Draw25%
Linares Deportivo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ucam Murcia
1.57
Linares Deportivo
1.23

Ucam Murcia creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ucam Murcia
1.32
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Ucam Murcia
1.21
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Ucam Murcia+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ucam Murcia ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ucam Murcia or draw
70%
Ucam Murcia or Linares Deportivo
75%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
55%

Winning margin

Ucam Murcia wins by 2+
23%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ucam Murcia 1+ goals
79%
Ucam Murcia 2+ goals
46%
Ucam Murcia 3+ goals
21%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
71%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
35%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ucam Murcia (draw refunded)
60%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ucam Murcia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ucam Murcia attack 1.32 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.57

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Ucam Murcia defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ucam Murcia scores more
45%
level
25%
Linares Deportivo scores more
30%

Ucam Murcia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ucam Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ucam Murcia 1 – 2 Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Ucam Murcia 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio de La Condomina in Murcia.