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Ucam Murcia vs Algeciras — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ucam Murcia
Ucam Murcia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Algeciras
Algeciras
11/28/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio de La Condomina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ucam Murcia42%
×Draw27%
Algeciras31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ucam Murcia
1.36
Algeciras
1.13

Ucam Murcia creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ucam Murcia
1.32
Algeciras
1.05

allows per match

Ucam Murcia
1.21
Algeciras
1.41

finishing

Ucam Murcia+0.00on par
Algeciras+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ucam Murcia ↓

Algeciras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ucam Murcia or draw
69%
Ucam Murcia or Algeciras
73%
Draw or Algeciras
58%

Winning margin

Ucam Murcia wins by 2+
20%
Algeciras wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ucam Murcia 1+ goals
74%
Ucam Murcia 2+ goals
39%
Ucam Murcia 3+ goals
16%
Algeciras 1+ goals
68%
Algeciras 2+ goals
31%
Algeciras 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ucam Murcia (draw refunded)
57%
Algeciras (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ucam Murcia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Algeciras away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ucam Murcia attack 1.32 + Algeciras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Algeciras attack 1.05 + Ucam Murcia defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ucam Murcia scores more
42%
level
27%
Algeciras scores more
31%

Ucam Murcia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ucam Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ucam Murcia vs Algeciras

Ucam Murcia beat Algeciras 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de La Condomina in Murcia.