Ucam Murcia 1–2 Albacete: Result & Stats

Ucam Murcia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Albacete

Liberto Beltrán 86'

Jordi Sánchez 80'

Rubén Martínez 29'

12/12/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio de La Condomina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ucam Murcia41%

×Draw28%

Albacete32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ucam MurciaExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.10

Ucam Murcia

1.29

Albacete

1.10

Ucam Murcia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.32

creates per match

1.00

1.21

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Ucam Murcia

1.32

Albacete

1.00

allows per match

Ucam Murcia

1.21

Albacete

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ucam Murcia+0.00on par

Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ucam Murcia ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ucam Murcia or draw

68%

Ucam Murcia or Albacete

72%

Draw or Albacete

59%

Winning margin

Ucam Murcia wins by 2+

18%

Albacete wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ucam Murcia 1+ goals

72%

Ucam Murcia 2+ goals

37%

Ucam Murcia 3+ goals

14%

Albacete 1+ goals

67%

Albacete 2+ goals

30%

Albacete 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ucam Murcia (draw refunded)

56%

Albacete (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ucam Murcia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ucam Murcia attack 1.32 + Albacete defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Albacete attack 1.00 + Ucam Murcia defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ucam Murcia scores more

41%

level

28%

Albacete scores more

32%

Ucam Murcia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ucam Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. Corbalan

22'

M. Abenza

29'

Rubén Martínez

32'

D. Johannesson← Sergi Maestre

44'

Jordi Sánchez← Dani González

51'

J. Alonso

59'

Sergio Moyita← Alberto

66'

Antonio Caballero← Mario Abenza

73'

Josete

80'

Jordi Sánchez

82'

J. Terranova← Felipe Chacartegui

82'

Liberto Beltrán← Josema Raigal

85'

R. Martinez

86'

Liberto Beltrán

88'

S. Garcia

90'

Manu

90+4'

B. Barragan

90+4'

90'

David Del Pozo← Rubén Martínez

90'

Rafa Gálvez← Manu Fuster

Ucam

Albacete

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Salva Ballesta

59'▲Sergio Moyita←▼Alberto

66'▲Antonio Caballero←▼Mario Abenza

82'▲J. Terranova←▼Felipe Chacartegui

82'▲Liberto Beltrán←▼Josema Raigal

Ucam Murcia substitutes

MoyitaCaballeroTerranovaBeltránAdmonioFarrandoMarongTropiAgirre

Manager: Rubén De La Barrera

32'▲D. Johannesson←▼Sergi Maestre

44'▲Jordi Sánchez←▼Dani González

90'▲David Del Pozo←▼Rubén Martínez

90'▲Rafa Gálvez←▼Manu Fuster

Albacete substitutes

JohannessonSánchezPozoGálvezArasaRosićGómezMartínezLlinaresGarcía